Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

1Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4, 2National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA, 3Department of Global Change Research, Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados, IMEDEA (UIB-CSIC), 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain, 4The UWA Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley 6009, Australia, 5Centre for Ocean Life, DTU Aqua, Charlottenlund Slot, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark, 6School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia, 7Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Ecosciences Precinct, Brisbane, Qld 4102, Australia, 8Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia, 9Department of Biology, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA, 10Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll PA37 1QA, UK, 11Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA, 12Imperial College London, Department of Life Sciences, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK, 13GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Paläoumwelt, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Loewenichstrasse 28, 91054 Erlangen, Germany, 14Centre for Marine Ecosystems Research, Edith Cowan University, Perth, WA 6027, Australia, 15Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth SY23 3DA, UK, 16Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia, 17Plymouth University, Drakes Circus, Plymouth, Devon PL4 8AA, UK, 18Section of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712, USA, 19Faculty of Science, Health, Education and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, DC, Qld, Australia, 20Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, PO Box 77000, Port Elizabeth, 6031, South Africa, 21Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, 101 H Street, Suite Q, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA, 22Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics (CARM), School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia ABSTRACT